Last Big Prize of 2016

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Bernie Sanders will win five out of the six primaries tomorrow, according to my model.

In my personal opinion, I think Bernie will win 70% or so in MT and ND, 60% in SD and lose narrowly in NM, but numbers are numbers, I will not change them based on my personal feelings.

 

June 7th early morning bonus:

June 7th will be the last date that nationwide primaries will be hosted. With 694 delegates up-for-grab, Bernie Sanders would need to win more than 72% of the votes today to make up that almost insurmountable pledged delegate gap. However, this projection, unfortunately, does not pose the situation that Bernie would be able to win the pledged delegate count.

 

However, Bernie is able to score two to five victories today. Within the margin of error, it is possible for Bernie to win all states except New Jersey, but it is also possible for Hillary to score all states other than Montana and North Dakota. Yet, it is possible that Hillary Clinton, according to the medias, clinched nomination would decrease turnout on the Hillary camp, as some voters no longer feel that their vote matters.

 

California

With 475 delegates up for grab, the Golden State is undoubtedly the biggest prize of the primary process, as well as that of the electoral college. As a state, California is ethnically diverse, with no majority ethnic group. With 37.6% of the population being Hispanic or Latino, California has the second highest concentration of that ethnic group only behind New Mexico; 14.9% of the state’s population are Asian, also the second highest of any state, behind Hawaii.

 

My model gives a Bernie win in California of approximately 7-8 percentage points, but a key voting bloc–Asian-Americans–cannot be factored with enough weight into the model. With 15% Asian-Americans, this group could tip the election either-way. Low average among Hispanics–29 years–may also contribute to a Bernie win in California. The State only has a small Black population of 7.2 percent, a strong indicator of a Bernie victory.

 

Polls have consistently valued Bernie at 1-2 points behind Hillary Clinton; however, polls also consistently underestimate Bernie by 4-5 percentage points. As indicated in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and Indiana, even in consistently polled places, polls underestimate Bernie Sanders’s vote share. Polls did, however, overestimate Bernie vote share in South Carolina.

 

Other than polling and demographics, the other consistently reliable indicator is Facebook like count. In California, the adjusted count is reported to be 2.84, above national average, 2.77 for 0.07 points. This is higher than 2.4 in Iowa, 49-49, 2.71 in Ohio, 44-56 and roughly the same in Kentucky (2.83, 46-46), but significantly lower than states that Bernie won in a blowout, such as Colorado (4.5, 60-40), New Hampshire (3.77, 60-40) and Hawaii (5, 70-30). The Facebook model also suggests Bernie will win Northern Cal. in a blowout (70%+), but lose 10-15 percentage points in central California.

Averaging all submodels, Bernie tips California with 7-8 percentage points.

 

New Mexico

New Mexico primary would be the second-most interesting today, behind California. With a Latino population of 47%, NM’s demographics favor Hillary Clinton. Yet, New Mexico’s Black population, at 2.1%, is extremely low, and might indicate a Bernie victory.

 

Second, Bernie’s Facebook like share is high in New Mexico, with a relative adjusted count of 3.875, similar to that of New Hampshire and Colorado. Colorado also has a high Hispanic population, and heavily Hispanic Pueblo county voted for a 6-point Hillary Clinton victory. With New Mexico being more demographically Hispanic, Bernie may still tip a victory, but New Mexico could go either way, and winning margin will not be large.

 

One thought on “Last Big Prize of 2016

  1. California’s prediction only model yields 48.8%. Polling gave me incorrect results, I apologize.

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