Post-2016 PVI

I was going to offer an installment on my response on the 2016 presidential election (no, I am not dead, and I feel proud that my model was reasonably accurate given those percentages). However, this is my final exam week and the exams have preoccupied me, so I shall offer this alternative here.


Some interesting phenomenons:

West Virginia is now tied for third most Republican state at R+19.1. Indiana and Missouri are as red as Mississippi, all at around R+8.7. Maine reduces from D+6 to D+4 (still fairly Democratic given ME-02’s margin this year). In a Republican wave, Oregon, Connecticut and Delaware are all vulnerable, at D+5, D+6, D+6 respectively. Ohio, on the other hand, despite voting heavily Republican this year, is still only at R+3. Arizona and Georgia are both down to R+4.5 from R+6 four years ago. The new EVEN states are now PA, WI and NH (all down from D+2 ish). MI still sitting at D+1 despite voting Trump this year, given the state’s huge Democratic leaning from 2012.


Download PVI table here

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