Author: admin

How 2016 became the great prospering of the Republican Party–and how 2014 shaped that.

No state split its presidential and senate ballots in 2016, a phenomenon that has never happened before. [1] Jason Kander came within 2 points with incumbent Republican Roy Blunt, but the turnout generated by Donald Trump is too large for Kander to prevail; were Trump to win a slightly smaller margin, Kander would be the […]

2018 Senate highlight race: Arizona and Nevada

Arizona Incumbent: Jeff Flake (R) Last party margin: 49.2-46.2 Senator Jeff Flake is one of the most endangered Republican incumbents in the 2018 cycle. Ever since his vote against Manchin-Toomey amendment (expanding universal background check on all gun purchases), his approval rating has been trending low. A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling in 2013 has showed […]

Canadian Voting Index–An Introduction

Introduction Partisan Voting Index is a concept developed by American political scientist Charlie Cook. While Mr. Cook would definitely not be happy me stealing his concept of partisan voting index to Canada, it’s not going to be effective in a Canadian context anyway. Canada has three major political parties–the Conservatives (or the Tories), the Liberals, […]

2018 Senate Ratings

Safe D Likely D Leans D Tilts D Pure Tossup Tilts R Leans R Likely R Safe R Feinstein (CA) Stabenow (MI) Nelson (FL) Manchin (WV) Tester (MT) McCaskill (MO) Cruz (TX) Wicker (MS) Murphy (CT) Menendez (NJ) Casey (PA) Heller (NV) Flake (AZ) UT Open (Hatch) Barrasso (WY) Carper (DE) Kaine (VA) Baldwin (WI) […]

Post-2016 PVI

I was going to offer an installment on my response on the 2016 presidential election (no, I am not dead, and I feel proud that my model was reasonably accurate given those percentages). However, this is my final exam week and the exams have preoccupied me, so I shall offer this alternative here.   Some […]

2016 General: The Model is Here

Hillary Clinton is favored to win tomorrow’s election since the beginning of the 2016 cycle. Since after the primaries, Donald Trump has only lead five non-Rasmussen or Ipsos, non-tracking national four-way polls. This possibly points to an overwhelming Democratic win tomorrow, but our model, largely based on state-level polling averages, suggests only a modest Clinton […]

2016 Senate Ratings

U.S. Senate Safe D Likely D Leans D Tilt D Tossup Tilt R Leans R Likely R Safe R Blumenthal (CT) Bennet (CO) Johnson (WI)  Toomey (PA) NV Open (Reid)  IN Open (Coats) Rubio (FL) McCain (AZ) Murkowski (AK) Schatz (HI) Kirk (IL)  Ayotte (NH) LA Open (Vitter)  Isakson (GA) Shelby (AL) MD Open (Mikulski) Blunt (MO) […]